The future direction of Irish agriculture

Loss of the nitrates derogation would significantly damage Irish agriculture and the broader Irish economy. Moreover, given the reality of the increasing global demand for grass-fed meat and dairy products, as set out most recently in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, suppression of food production in regulated regions like Ireland/Europe could lead to scarcity of food in the lowest-income regions globally, given price and market volatility due to global conflicts. Food production suppression in the EU would also result in an increase in overall emissions from global agricultural production.

Quantifying the financial loss

According to research carried out by Teagasc, the impact on the Irish dairy sector and, ultimately, the Irish economy if full derogation were lost, would be a volume reduction of 1.2 billion litres of milk output, annually. This is the equivalent to an €800m financial loss in Irish dairy industry output value. More information on this can be accessed in Teagasc’s report, titled Environmental and economic modelling of the impact of adjustments in the maximum stocking rates permitted under Ireland’s nitrates derogation. Further analysis by Ernst & Young (EY), commissioned by Dairy Industry Ireland (DII), estimated a cumulative negative impact across the Irish economy of €45bn over 10 years. In addition, with 60 per cent of beef animals coming from the dairy herd, EY quantified the knock-on reduction in beef production alone as a loss of up to €400m per annum.

Cattle-cleansing agenda

Moreover, given the seemingly zealous appetite of some environmental groups for judicial reviews, this loss of livestock numbers would unlikely be the last. We need only look at the ongoing decline in beef cow numbers for confirmation of the ongoing incremental reductions in the Irish cattle herd. One peculiar aspect of these judicial reviews in which Government and EU policy and strategy are brought into question, is that the organisations engaged in these legalistic pursuits are, for the most part, funded by the same Government whose policies they are questioning.

And, again, while the pursuit of the abolition of livestock farming seems to be the single biggest issue for many environmental groups, unfortunately their clarion call for suppression of Irish agricultural output is compounded by indifference and ignorance as to the true economic impact of the agri-food sector among many policy makers and economic gurus. This attitude is presumably driven by a belief that Ireland’s smart economy doesn’t need traditional local industry anymore.

Critical role of farmers

As I have said previously, faced with this combination of prejudice and ignorance, Irish agriculture must dramatically improve the communication of its current and future Irish economic relevance, while also focusing on delivering the compliance parameters required to secure a continuing extension of the nitrates derogation. In that context, the most egregious nail in the Irish agricultural coffin must not come as a result of non compliance with derogation rules. What an own goal that would be, with livestock producers having only themselves to blame.

Very clearly, making nutrient management a formal part of the purchase contracts for beef and dairy farmers, in addition to completion of the EIP projects, are key measures, not just in terms of underpinning the quid pro quo of derogation extension, but, in all reality, ensuring that those farmers that have invested at considerable cost in extra slurry storage capacity and are diligently complying with spreading constraints and best practice guidance, are not let down by non-compliers.

Global food security

Meanwhile, looking globally, I refer again to the publication of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035. The outlook forecasts, against a lot of caveats, that while real food prices out to 2036, across a broad range of food categories, might be at the same level in real terms as current prices, due to increasing global demand there is likely to be increased price volatility. This is both because of increased input costs driven by current wars and disputes as well as production limitations in regulated mature food production areas including Ireland and the greater EU region.

Moreover, according to the report, this diversion of production to non-regulated regions, while not capable of meeting increased global demand, could see emissions from global agricultural production increase significantly. Increased price volatility and uncertainty around food supply will impact mostly, and disproportionately, the people in the poorest regions in the world, according to OECD/FAO.

Food production realities

This reality needs to be accepted by our virtue signalling friends in Ireland who wrongly keep positioning suppression of Irish agri-output as being vital for global emissions reduction, and essential to incentivising increased production in low-income countries under a climate justice agenda. The OECD/FAO report specifically suggests that global dairy consumption is expected to continue expanding, mainly supported by population growth and changing dietary preferences associated with economic growth. Given global population growth and increased global demand in emerging economies for meat and dairy products, OECD/FAO emphasise a core focus on the sustainable intensification of agricultural systems.

So, suppression of Irish agricultural output, whether through relentless legalistic ambush or through economic ignorance/negligence, and, last but not least, through non-compliance, would ultimately be a singular act of economic self-harm similar in daftness, I would suggest, to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Indeed, suppression of Irish food output is, in the end, just a lose-lose for the Irish economy and clearly does not deliver climate justice anywhere.