New year wishes

Wishful thinking rarely delivers positive outcomes. Likewise, new year resolutions are only beneficial if accompanied by resolute actions. What should we wish for Irish agriculture in the coming 12 months?
Economic prices, profitable farming, and clement weather conditions are vague, if positive, wishes. Unknowable events could change current trends, with weather very much an influencer of both price and profit, and entirely uncontrollable. 

Grain prices

Take grain prices as an example. Global climatic or other events regularly impact production and may alter supply and price prospects in 2026. This is possible, given the unpredictable climatic/political/military conditions globally, but it’s wishful thinking. Irish actions to improve domestic grain prices would involve a reordering of Irish grain use. Irish provenance for Irish branded spirits and beers, with a large premium for the Irish grain input, reflecting the end value of the products, would do much to transform the profitability of malting barley production. That requires action, not wishful thinking.
Low grain prices are driving milk production, globally. Higher grain prices, again induced by some unknowable events, would lower milk production and restore profitability in the coming months. We need only look at global meat prices to see how even a relatively small production deficit lifts producer prices to profitable levels. These unknowable events, however, would not be the result of actions taken, just wishful thinking. 

Taking action

Some actions to deliver positive outcomes in 2026 have already been taken. The successful campaign to retain the Nitrates Derogation, for instance. The new TB control/eradication strategy must be action-led to reduce incidence significantly over the coming 12 months. Apart from movement restrictions and changes in testing protocols, consideration should be given to radical actions that could deliver substantial results. Should a complete cull of the Sika invasive deer population be considered? Apart from Sika deer being a TB vector of note, the outcomes for our Irish red deer population would be positive, along with reduced damage to crops and forestry. Meanwhile, cattle movements are still too numerous. Further restrictions would surely reduce infection risks across a range of diseases, especially TB. In any case, how many incomes can one bullock support?

Prevention

Disease prevention is one of the most actionable wishes for 2026. A conclusion to the much-extended bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) eradication programme is within reach. Finality requires resolute coercion of the laggards, who are imposing ongoing cost on the vast majority who have cooperated fully. Animal Health Ireland (AHI) has launched an action strategy for the final eradication push. A major drive to reduce Johne’s disease incidence is not only actionable but an absolute necessity to safeguard live cattle and dairy product export markets. Infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) is another viral risk to our cattle herd and AHI’s control/eradication programme must be fully supported. We are beset by a myriad of diseases over which we have limited prevention capability. We wished that migrant wildfowl would not infect our native wild birds or managed poultry flocks with avian flu. That wish didn’t work so our second line of defence is now in operation after several outbreaks. Housing actions work, at least partially, at great cost and inconvenience to our commercial poultry sector. Bluetongue absence was another wishful thought. Hope was replaced by the reality that a few miles of sea were never going to be enough to prevent infected midges from breaching our natural aquatic defence barrier. We can hope that a ‘hardy winter’ may eliminate the current incursion. Better, perhaps, to have a vaccination contingency plan based on the proposition that luck or wishful thinking are poor substitutes for positive, actionable disease management strategies.