The challenges and prospects for Irish meat

Giving an overview of the sector, Dale comments on its value: “This is a multi-billion-euro industry; the Bord Bia figures confirm that fact. The poultry and pig sectors are important parts of Irish meat production. Poultry is going well, and pig numbers are up by four per cent this year. Producer numbers are relatively small, but the integration and efficiency are excellent. Some of the demand that we’ve lost on the beef side has undoubtedly gone to the poultry sector, and we have to acknowledge that. The sheep sector is under a bit of pressure in terms of both producer and sheep numbers.”
Dale’s observations on the global markets point to a period of ‘flux and transition’: “If you look at the big exporters around the world, obviously Brazil dominates. The Chinese market is very important to them and the new tariff and quota on Brazilian beef going into China is going to create a challenge for the rest of the year. The US has created some opportunity by removing the 26 per cent tariff and Brazil has been actively taking advantage of that. It will prevent some product from coming into Europe, and into the UK. The EU has a suspension imposed on Brazilian beef since September. We would worry about the opportunity still for Brazilian beef to go into the UK and undermine the foodservice channel there. We have to see how that plays out.”
Anecdotally, Dale says, he has heard that a lot of Brazilian beef entered Europe ahead of ahead of the suspension but the truth of this will be established, he says: “We’ll know those volumes as the final statistics come in towards the end of the year. But there’s no doubt we’re in a little bit of flux. Ultimately, from an Irish point of view, we continue to trade into the UK and European markets in the main.”

Global cattle population

In terms of the current global herd size, Dale comments on the challenges that the US is facing: “The US is at an historic low, and they’re having a real challenge in terms of rebuilding the herd. Water and drought are the major limiting factors. That’s why beef prices have gone so high in the US, and it’s become a political issue for the Trump administration leading into the midterms. Ultimately, they got rid of the tariff to bring beef prices down a little bit,” he says.
The Irish herd, too, Dale says, has experienced its own challenges but there is some positivity on the horizon. “The European herd has been declining, back to about 6.3 million tonnes of production. Last year was very tough for Ireland where we lost around 200,000 head of cattle out of our kill. We went from 1.8 million head back to about 1.56 million. It looks like we could achieve parity this year, and Bord Bia is indicating that there might be some growth in supply next year. That’s positive and it’s testament to our farmers. The suckler herd had been in decline and has stabilised and increased by about 15,000 cows. I’d be hopeful we would see a similar increase in 2027. It reflects more positivity around the industry. There are ups and downs, as everyone knows, but I think the long-term trajectory is really positive, if we can just stay in the markets.”

Price outlook

Providing some insight into market prospects, he said: “Demand is pretty good now. My members have been filling orders for the Christmas period. It was a tough start to the year, there’s no getting away from that. We saw a big consumption decline, particularly in the UK in the first six months. As the World Cup got going, the market picked up and it’s been steady for the last couple of months. The kill is up a good bit on this time last year. That’s positive, and our objective is to return the best price possible to the farmer.”

When asked about Teagasc calculations on finisher margin requirements, he says: “Teagasc have a job to do in terms of informing finishers on costs and returns. Some of those numbers are sobering. I think farmers need to look at their individual situations and budgets, when they’re making purchasing decisions, buying animals to feed them over the winter. Hopefully we will have a little more stability in the market. But it’s difficult to predict these things.”

Fewer producers

Dale recently completed his tenure as president of the Agricultural Science Association. The theme of generational renewal, a focus of that organisation, continues to be a challenge: “It’s a critical issue. We must approach this in two ways. We shouldn’t get too negative. There are a lot of young people coming into the industry, and we need to call that out. There is positive work going on among the processors I represent, whether it’s ABP or Kepak or Dawn with their young farmer programmes. They’re trying to support that next generation and show them there’s a viable future in cattle production. Yes, there are challenges in all sectors that we need to manage. The next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is going to be important. We’ve seen taxation changes in the budget that should help in terms of farm partnerships and enabling transfers to happen earlier within those partnerships. We really need to focus on what is working well and how we can improve and develop what we have. As an industry we are all proud of, we must promote the opportunities for young people as well as addressing the challenges.”

Changing attitudes

Dale reflects on the sustainability of cattle production, and the criticism that the sector has attracted: “There’s been a lot of criticism over the last 10 years. I spent some time in Washington DC between 2015 and 2019 and when I came home, I sensed a change in attitudes towards agriculture. Thankfully, I think we’re in a slightly better place now, which gives me a lot more optimism. For the first time, the EU Commission has a European livestock strategy. It’s completely opposite to the Green Deal, designed to rebuild resilience in the livestock sector. It fully recognises its role in rural economies and the part it plays in supporting human nutrition.
“The renewal of the nitrates derogation was a success for the whole industry. We worked closely with farm organisations and our colleagues in the dairy industry. It is a critical issue. We must continue to improve water quality. The challenge now has been set down for us. We have another three-year period, and we need to use that wisely. We have some of the best water quality in Europe, so we are working from a strong base.”

Efficiency gains

Dale says he is impressed by the adoption of new technologies to drive farm efficiency: “The innovation over the last five years has been remarkable. We are well on the way to achieving the ambition of being the first country in the world to genotype our entire herd. The Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) has made remarkable progress in breeding. If you look at sexed semen adoption, the dairy and beef sectors are becoming much more integrated. That’s all positive. We’re seeing real value coming through the commercial beef value index. That’s science at its core coming into our industry and making us more efficient.”